In 2022, the United Kingdom emerged as the European Union’s primary dairy trade partner, holding a significant position on the World Dairy Map presented by Rabobank. Over the last five years, global dairy trade experienced non-linear growth, influenced by events such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Despite fluctuations, the trade volume reached 95.6 billion pounds in 2022, reflecting a clear trend with an average annual growth rate of 1.1% between 2017 and 2022, culminating in a 4.8 billion kilo increase.
The World Dairy Map serves as a visual representation of key trade flows, highlighting the noteworthy trade relationship between the EU and the UK post-Brexit. This particular stream now ranks as the third-largest on the map, following flows from New Zealand to China and from the United States (US) to Mexico, the world’s largest dairy importer.
Notably, the US has steadily advanced as a major dairy exporter, securing a 16.1% market share by 2022, the only major exporter to gain market share (+3%) since 2019. While the EU maintains the largest market share at 27.7%, the US continues to make strides. New Zealand retains its status as the world’s largest dairy exporter, comprising 21% of global trade.
The global dairy market’s growth, particularly in cheese trade, is noteworthy, with 3.48 million tonnes traded worldwide in 2022. The EU dominates this segment with a market share of over 38%, despite a slight decrease from 2019.
Rabobank anticipates continued growth in dairy trade, identifying opportunities in Southeast Asia and China despite their increasing local production. The US is poised to gain market share, particularly with projections of expanding domestic production by 2030. New Zealand and the EU, while holding dominant positions, may face challenges due to moderate milk production growth and evolving environmental policies. The dynamics of global dairy trade are expected to evolve, with the US positioned for further market expansion.
