Britain’s economy contracted by 0.3% in April, marking its worst monthly performance in two years and falling short of forecasts, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This decline followed a 0.2% expansion in March, with analysts attributing the downturn primarily to a historic collapse in exports triggered by Donald Trump’s trade war.
The ONS data revealed that the slump was preceded by a brief uptick earlier in the year. In February, UK GDP grew by 0.5%, aided by a temporary reprieve from US tariffs, before slowing to 0.2% in March. Economists noted that this earlier growth was largely artificial, driven by businesses rushing to export goods before Trump’s punitive levies took effect. However, by April, exports plummeted by £2bn — the sharpest monthly drop on record — as American tariffs began biting. The manufacturing sector, particularly automotive and pharmaceuticals, shrank by 0.6%, while services declined by 0.4% and housing sales stalled, hitting estate agents and legal firms. Only construction provided a glimmer of relief, expanding by 0.9%.
The timing of the GDP figures dealt a blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who had unveiled Labour’s three-year economic strategy just a day earlier. Reeves acknowledged the impact of tariff-related uncertainty, telling Sky News that weakened exports and manufacturing had contributed to April’s dismal figures. Some economists argued the contraction was temporary, with a likely rebound in May, while others warned of prolonged stagnation, citing the fading boost from pre-tariff stockpiling.
With the UK’s trade outlook deteriorating, analysts suggested Reeves may have to abandon her spending pledges or resort to tax rises — a politically fraught move for the new government. Firms were already cutting jobs and shelving investments, signalling deeper structural challenges ahead. As Trump’s trade policies continue to disrupt global supply chains, Britain faces mounting pressure to recalibrate its economic strategy — or risk further decline.
