A recent study by the Global Carbon Project reveals that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached an all-time high in 2024. The report indicates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have increased by 0.8% compared to the previous year, totalling an estimated 37.4 billion tonnes. Additionally, emissions from land-use changes are projected at 4.2 billion tonnes, leading to a total of 41.6 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions this year, a significant rise from the 40.9 billion tonnes emitted in 2023.
The increase in emissions is partly attributed to drought and forest fires exacerbated by the El Niño climate phenomenon of 2023-2024. Despite a general decline in land-use change emissions over the past decade, this year has seen a notable increase. This surge in CO2 emissions contributes to the growing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, a 52% increase above pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm.
Regional trends in emissions vary significantly. China, which accounts for 32% of global emissions, saw a modest increase of 0.2% in 2024, driven by a small rise in coal emissions and a larger increase in natural gas emissions. In contrast, the United States, responsible for 13% of global emissions, reported a slight decline of 0.6%. The European Union reduced its emissions by 3.8% and now accounts for 7% of the global total. India, however, experienced a substantial increase of 4.6% in its emissions, which now constitute 8% of the global total. Emissions from international air and shipping also rose by 7.8% compared to the previous year, though they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Pierre Friedlingstein, the principal investigator of the study, emphasizes the critical nature of these findings. Despite advancements in renewable energy and electric mobility, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. Friedlingstein warns that without immediate and drastic reductions in fossil fuel use, global warming will escalate to dangerous levels. The report highlights that the world has yet to see a peak in fossil fuel emissions, with Friedlingstein noting,
“The effects of climate change are becoming more dramatic, yet we still see no sign that the burning of fossil fuels has reached its peak”.
Glen Peters from the Norwegian CICERO Center for International Climate Research underscores that while some countries are making progress in reducing their emissions, these gains are often offset by increases in other countries. “Climate action is a collective issue,” Peters stresses, emphasizing the need for a coordinated global approach to reduce emissions effectively.
The study’s projections are alarming, suggesting that if current emission rates continue, there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C mark within six years. This threshold is critical for limiting the most severe consequences of climate change. The report also notes that current technologies for removing CO2 from the atmosphere, such as carbon capture, only compensate for a negligible fraction of the total emissions. In contrast to the vast amounts of CO2 released annually, these technologies have so far been limited in their impact.
While the rise of renewable energy and the decline in deforestation emissions are positive trends, the scientists caution that these measures are insufficient to put global emissions on a downward trajectory. The authors urge world leaders to reassess their current strategies at the UN climate summit COP29 in Baku. Only rapid and profound reductions in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can offer a chance to limit warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
