Technologies, as well as underlying knowledge, come and go. Sometimes they vanish without a trace. It’s not some wild conspiracy theories about aliens who built pyramids in Egypt. It’s the story about real engineering knowledge and skills lost in the last decades. With plans to decommission ICE engines, we are digging a grave not only for the knowledge and privilege but also for our technical advantage against developing countries, and most importantly, against China.
Abandoning the internal combustion engine (ICE) seemed to be a good idea at the start. Many analogies were drawn. After all, we’ve abandoned steam-powered vehicles, and nothing bad happened. However, it’s not the same with the ICE. The analogy is incomplete. Our companies struggled to innovate and improve the internal combustion engine for more than a century, resulting in mountain piles of patents. As a result, inter alia, of British engineering genius, the ICE is almost perfect in every way. It performs well, is clean, is as silent as it can be, and is reliable. All the intellectual property of this very complex piece of machinery belongs to the US, the UK, continental Europe, and our allies in the Far East.
Even with the concentrated power, ingenuity, and resources of China, it’s not easy to match the progress achieved by the West and Japan. Moreover, there is a lot of intellectual property (IP) involved, so once Chinese companies reach our level, they will encounter obstacles due to our patent rights.
It’s not the same with Electric Vehicles, though. The underlying technology is neither complex nor new. In fact, excluding autonomous driving, it is an electric drill on four wheels. Most advanced parts – and the underlying intellectual property – are left behind. Batteries are produced by Japan and China and assembled at boldly named ‘gigafactories’.
EVs are a blessing for China. The century-long advantage in ICE vehicles is eradicated. There is no need for vast intellectual property treasures of years gone by. A motor, a battery, some controllers, a suspension, and here we go.
No wonder China is now the number one producer and, more importantly, exporter of all vehicles, including EVs. Of course, we can play with tariffs and stimuli to encourage people to purchase cars made in Europe, the US, and Japan. We can raise barriers. However, it isn’t exactly market-driven efforts, and it will backfire in one way or another. It will not prevent people from other countries from purchasing Chinese cars, which will be cheaper and not worse than ours.
China exported 4.9 million cars in 2023, surpassing Japan’s 4.4 million. The UK produced 1 million vehicles (produced, not exported), considered a success as it repeats a 2019 record. Let me remind you that automotive export is Britain’s largest sector by value.
Meanwhile, the Chinese BYD company has surpassed Tesla as the most popular EV maker. BYD started as a company to produce batteries and developed into the world’s most popular EV manufacturer in mere years. This growth can’t be contained or limited because there is very little tech and IP behind the whole EV industry. Let me remind you that it was us who started the revolution which led to our industry demise.
