A leading British consultancy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), predicts that the United Kingdom will be the top-performing large economy in Europe over the next 15 years. This forecast, reported by Bloomberg, suggests that the UK will experience annual growth of 1.6 to 1.8% until 2038, ultimately overcoming the economic challenges posed by Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, and high inflation.
Despite struggling with productivity since the financial crisis and facing significant labour shortages in recent years, the UK’s economy is expected to thrive in the long term. CEBR economist Pushpin Singh attributes this growth to London’s enduring status as a financial hub and the strength of the service sector. Singh also believes that the economic impact of the UK’s departure from the EU is often overstated and not well-studied.
In comparison, France’s economy is expected to perform less well due to its larger public sector and higher tax rates. Germany, while still expected to have a slightly larger economy than the UK in 2038, is facing a slowdown in industrial production. The CEBR also predicts that China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2037, with India emerging as the third-largest economy.
Italy is expected to drop out of the top 10, replaced by South Korea. The researchers anticipate that the global economy will double in size as poorer countries catch up with richer ones, leading to significant growth and change in the world’s economic landscape.
