The climate negotiations at the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, have descended into chaos, particularly on Saturday afternoon, casting significant doubt on the possibility of reaching an agreement on climate finance, a central issue on the agenda. The conference was initially scheduled to conclude on Friday afternoon, but intense negotiations continued through Friday night and Saturday morning, focusing on the amount rich countries should contribute to help developing countries cope with climate-related damages.
The conference aims to define a new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG), replacing the current $100 billion per year goal, and to make significant progress on mitigation, loss and damage, and adaptation finance. However, the current impasse threatens to undermine these objectives, leaving the future of global climate action uncertain.
The dissatisfaction among developing countries is not limited to the actions of oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia but is also directed at the rich countries, which are seen as having made a belated and insufficient offer. A negotiator from Latin America described the offer as “insufficient to respond well to it.” Juan Carlos Gomez, a Panamanian climate negotiator known for his concise summaries of complex situations, succinctly captured the essence of the failure: “A lot of people fu___ up.”
The walkout by representatives of small island states and the poorest countries on Saturday afternoon marked a critical turning point. Since then, these countries have not rejoined the negotiations. The rich countries, after over a week of deliberations, finally presented an offer through a draft agreement by the chairman on Friday, proposing an amount that would increase to $250 billion by 2035. Following overnight discussions, this figure was raised to $300 billion. However, this offer has been met with outrage from island states and the least developed countries, who argue that it is woefully inadequate to address the climate devastation they have been experiencing and that it does not include donations, nor does it prioritize the needs of the poorest countries.
The absence of the island states has led to fragmented negotiations, with various delegations operating in separate rooms and sending negotiators back and forth. European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, through his spokesperson, acknowledged the EU’s efforts to “build bridges with everyone,” but admitted that achieving a successful outcome was becoming increasingly unlikely. The time constraint is another significant hurdle, as many delegates have flights scheduled for early Saturday evening or Sunday morning, leaving little time to regain control of the chaotic situation, according to an experienced negotiator from the Latin American delegation.
Criticism is mounting from developing countries against the Azerbaijani presidency, which is perceived to have lost control of the negotiations in the final hours. There is also widespread uncertainty about the various texts being circulated. Additionally, donor countries are criticizing Saudi Arabia for its role in obstructing substantial financial support to small island states during the climate finance negotiations. It has been reported that members of the Saudi delegation have influenced certain texts, including those related to the ‘just transition’ work program, further complicating the negotiations.
