The latest show of force in the Strait of Hormuz had a whiff of tragicomedy about it right from the start. France and Britain, in a rare fit of coordinated enthusiasm, announced they’d be beefing up their military presence in the Middle East. The official line was about protecting the freedom of navigation, because nothing says “global peacekeepers” like parking an aircraft carrier near a very narrow stretch of water that Iran has declared its personal fiefdom.
Paris, never one to miss a photo op, confirmed it was dispatching the nuclear-powered behemoth Charles de Gaulle and its entourage of frigates. Meanwhile, London, ever the loyal sidekick, sent the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon to keep it company. Their plan was to position this naval muscle just outside the Bab al-Mandab strait, shuffling it from the eastern Mediterranean to loiter menacingly near the Iranian coastline. A real-life game of battleships, if you will, but with significantly higher stakes than losing a plastic peg.
Iran, predictably, did not burst into applause. Kazem Garibabadi, the deputy foreign minister, took to social media to deliver the kind of warning that tends to make admirals swallow their tea the wrong way. He declared that any presence of “extra-regional destroyers” would be met with “a decisive and immediate response” from the Iranian armed forces. He accused the Europeans of escalating a crisis and trying to “cover up the true root of insecurity in the region” – which, in Tehran’s telling, is obviously everyone else’s fault. To add a bit of local flavour, Iranian commanders also let it slip that they’ve deployed a fleet of light, homegrown submarines in the strait. Because nothing defuses tension quite like the idea of tiny, stealthy Iranian subs buzzing around your multi-billion pound warship.
Enter Emmanuel Macron, trying to have his cake and eat it. Speaking in Nairobi, the French President insisted that there had “never been any question of a troop deployment”. He claimed this was merely a security mission, something to be “coordinated with Iran,” and that he totally rejects any blockade from either side. He added, with the straight face of a man who has just moved an aircraft carrier 3,000 miles, that they are “ready” if needed. So, to be clear: it’s not a deployment, but they are there. It’s not a threat, but they’re ready. It’s a brave attempt at diplomacy, right up until the moment Iran calls your bluff.
Macron also revealed that the ad-hoc mission, co-led with the UK, has supposedly wrangled 50 countries and international organisations into agreeing to resume maritime traffic. However, he conceded that the whole of Africa is currently a “victim of the blockade,” which is a polite way of admitting that global trade is haemorrhaging cash while everyone plays chicken with missiles.
From a British perspective, the whole situation is a masterclass in wishful thinking. The Ministry of Defence, displaying the gusto of a man rearranging deckchairs, confirmed that HMS Dragon was being “pre-positioned as part of prudent planning”. Defence Secretary John Healey is even hosting a virtual meeting of over 40 defence ministers to discuss “military plans”. This bureaucratic hustle is happening while Iranian lawmakers are drafting a bill to formally forbid passage to vessels from “hostile states”. And just to remind everyone that the Strait isn’t a theoretical debating society, a British cargo ship was reportedly struck by an “unknown projectile” 23 miles off the coast of Qatar, sparking a small fire. The authorities are investigating, which is Whitehall-speak for “we have absolutely no idea who did it, but we have our suspicions.”
So, here we are. The French and British are moving ships, Iran is rattling sabres (and submarines), and a full fifth of the world’s oil supply is stuck in the bottleneck. Macron might claim the brave attempt is alive, but the reality is that the moment Iran sends a warning, that bravery starts looking an awful lot like a high-stakes bluff. We’re ready, except when we’re not; it’s not a deployment, unless you look out the window. Marvellous. Absolutely marvellous.
