In Foreign Affairs

Helen Rush

Business activity in China is declining

Business activity in China is declining

The activity in the large Chinese industry shrunk in June compared to a month earlier. This is according to figures from research agencies Markit and Caixin.

The purchasing managers’ index was 49.4 last month, compared to 50.2 a month earlier. A position of 50 or more indicates growth, below which shrinkage. Economists generally calculated at a level of 50.1. Both demand and production declined. New orders and expected new orders also fell.

A comparable indicator from the Chinese government also previously indicated a contraction of industrial activity in June. The government figures focus more on the large Chinese state-owned companies, while Caixin and Markit focus more on smaller private companies focused on exports. The latter are more sensitive to the consequences of the trade war.

An important figure was also given to the industry in Japan. Producer confidence fell sharply, to 7 in the second quarter. That was a level of 12 in the first quarter. A positive figure means that there are more entrepreneurs who count on growth than on the assumption of worse times. Economists assumed a score of 9.